London Property Market Report - November 2009

Graham Norwood is a leading financial and property journalist. His latest book - Profiting From Property in a Recession - is now available from Amazon.

You heard it here first: despite the traditional pre-Christmas slowdown, November will be a key month for the housing market.

The government is in the final throes of a death rattle but I expect it to try another roll of the housing dice in the mini-budget. Commentators expect the current stamp duty and first time buyer initiatives to be continued or expanded until spring (which just happens to be general election time).

Savills Research, a property consultancy, will unveil its 2010 forecast. It will claim south west London’s housing market is showing the strongest recovery of any part of the UK. It will also claim affordability across the UK is at an all time high thanks to house price falls and low interest rates…but the difficulty is actually obtaining a mortgage, meaning national recovery (as opposed to London’s) won’t happen until 2011 or 2012.

Love ‘em or loathe ‘em, bankers’ annual bonuses start being paid this month. Some will be in the form of stock but those in cash will probably go quickly into buying homes – good news for the capital’s market generally.

The only gloom is on lending. November may see more details of further restrictions, if they happen, on interest-only borrowing for homes.

That apart, you can hear a note of optimism amongst the crunch of autumn leaves.