London Property Prices and Market - Graham Norwood's Monthly Blog
As one door closes, another slams in your face.
It’s too easy to talk ourselves into making the market worse than it actually is, but even bearing that in mind we may need to recalibrate our expectations.
After 20% to 30% falls in prices, many homes in London are now highly affordable by historic standards. Estate agents have had a busy first two months of 2009. There are investors and bargain hunters, especially those from overseas who can take advantage of the falling pound.
Sounds like the start of a recovery doesn’t it? But it’s not, at least not yet.
That is because just as house prices may be bottoming out, so the recession is proving deeper and longer-lasting than anyone expected. Only last autumn a government minister spoke of economic recovery in late 2009; now another minister claims the recession is the worst for a century.
With banks still not lending as they used to – or perhaps as they should - it is little wonder the public are confused and, for the most part, the first time buyers who form the backbone of the market are still sitting on their hands.
In other words, the confidence that should return to buyers and sellers thanks to falling house prices is in short supply because of (a) the continuing credit squeeze and (b) the wider economic malaise.
Not so long ago these looked as if they would end later this year. Now I’m not so sure – 2010 may be the recovery time.
It’s too easy to talk ourselves into making the market worse than it actually is, but even bearing that in mind we may need to recalibrate our expectations.
After 20% to 30% falls in prices, many homes in London are now highly affordable by historic standards. Estate agents have had a busy first two months of 2009. There are investors and bargain hunters, especially those from overseas who can take advantage of the falling pound.
Sounds like the start of a recovery doesn’t it? But it’s not, at least not yet.
That is because just as house prices may be bottoming out, so the recession is proving deeper and longer-lasting than anyone expected. Only last autumn a government minister spoke of economic recovery in late 2009; now another minister claims the recession is the worst for a century.
With banks still not lending as they used to – or perhaps as they should - it is little wonder the public are confused and, for the most part, the first time buyers who form the backbone of the market are still sitting on their hands.
In other words, the confidence that should return to buyers and sellers thanks to falling house prices is in short supply because of (a) the continuing credit squeeze and (b) the wider economic malaise.
Not so long ago these looked as if they would end later this year. Now I’m not so sure – 2010 may be the recovery time.
posted by Barry Manners @ 5:29 AM
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